February 7, 2011

Spot Natural Gas Following the Trail of the Drunken Sailor,

The volatility in the natural gas spot market for the NY Citygate continues its chaotic ride, tracking the ups and downs of the winter storms that we have endured. Energy purchasers are looking forward to a return to the good old days of last November when spot prices were below five bucks per mmbtu. A warming trend will pull the Spot back below that level.

Natural Gas Price Trend Shifts Downward

In the natural gas futures market, front-month prices are dropping. At 7:15 this morning, natural gas prices reached $4.231; down $0.079. Natural gas was trading close to $4.90 per mmbtu just two weeks so there has been a strong move to lower prices.

Natural Gas Storage Declines by 189 BCF

Working gas in storage was 2,353 Bcf as of Friday, January 28, 2011, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 189 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 69 Bcf less than last year at this time and 5 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,348 Bcf.

Natural Gas Futures

CME-NYMEX natural gas futures market intraday prices for Feb. 7, 2011 at 7:16 AM
(Prices are USD per mmbtu)

Mar. - $4.231 -$0.079
Apr. -  $4.268 -$0.074
May - $4.329 -$0.070
Jun. - $4.387 -$0.069
Jul. -  $4.440 -$0.068
Aug. - $4.475 -$0.060

PMC 30-Day Natural Gas Futures Chart

Crude Watch

Light Sweet Crude (WTI) is trading on the CME/NYMEX market at $87.80 bbl, down $0.16 at 8:41 AM. Brent Crude is trading over $100.00 per barrel today.

 OPEC Basket Data

Electricity Watch

For more information view the Day Ahead Electric pricing data charts from the PMC database, updated every Monday.

Interesting Energy News and Commentary (Click on Links to View)
Judging by the recent positive news about the nuclear industry, and President Obama's aggressive renewable energy goals, 2011 may be the year that marks the Renaissance of nuclear power. The US Chamber of Commerce has been aggressively lobbying for nuclear generators and may be winning the war of words.

The 800 pound gorilla for the industry is fuel disposal which is still being ignored by Congress. The real question is will communities choose to become semi-permanent nuclear waste storage sites, which is the current DOE policy. The widespread furor over wind turbine farms indicates that NIMBYISM is stronger than ever and has the potential to derail any aggressive expansion of nuclear generation facilities.

How Nuclear Fits Into Obama's Energy Goal  (Americans for Energy Leadership, a Pro-Nuclear Lobbying Group)

Canadians To Ship Nuclear Waste Via The Great Lakes  WSJ Online

CHINA's Thorium Reactor Plans Moving Forward   Wired

Nukes Are Worth a Second Look   Troy Record Editorial

Weather Trends- Warm Up Expected
The National Weather Service's 6-10 Day Forecast shown below indicates that we may have a break from the cold next week. The arctic oscillator also turned strongly positive over the past week. The North American Jet Stream forecast indicates that it may be reverting to its normal winter pattern; it is currently dipping into Texas, the Yucatan and the Gulf of Mexico.

6-10 Day forecast
8-14 Day forecast
NOAA Forecast- 30-Days
El Nino-La Nina (Pacific Ocean Temperature Levels)
Arctic Oscillation (Arctic Pressure Patterns)
Jet Stream Forecast (SFSU)