December 12, 2011

Warm Weather Ahead Keeps Prices Low

Weather forecasters are predicting unseasonably warm weather ahead for the next 16 days. The news drove the price of natural gas down 6.4% for the week, settling at $3.337 for January futures at the end of trading on Friday on NYMEX. The US is experiencing the upside of global warming this winter.

The peculiarity of the La Nina Winter is illustrated in the fact that Rochester, NY's total snowfall is 2.1 inches, about 12 inches below normal. Last year on this date, Rochester had already had 28 inches in snowfall. Tennessee has had more snowfall than many areas in Upstate NY.

Natural Gas Breaks Through Resistance

This morning, natural gas has broken through resistance, reaching $3.228 per mmbtu at 8:45.
CME-NYMEX natural gas futures market intraday prices for December 12, 2011 at 8:45 AM.
(Prices are USD per mmbtu)

Jan.  2012 - $3.228 -$0.089
Feb. 2012- $3.267 -$0.086
Mar. 2012 - $3.284 -$0.083
Apr. 2012- $3.326 -$0.085
May. 2012- $3.371 -$0.084
Jun. 2012-  $3.411 -$0.086

PMC 30-Day Natural Gas Futures Chart

Natural Gas Drilling Exploration Drops by 36 Rigs

As of December 2, there were 36 fewer natural gas exploration rigs at work in the US compared to the previous week. In total, there are 820 natural gas drilling rigs in action, which is 128 less than last year at this time. Drillers are reluctant to start wells with prices so low. (Data courtesy of Baker Hughes)

Natural Gas Storage Rate 307 BCF Above Average

When will the heating season begin? Once again, we had positive injections into storage well into November. Working gas in storage was 3,831 Bcf as of Friday, December 2, 2011, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 20 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 102 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 307 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,524 Bcf.  

Electricity Prices Remain Near $40-per-MWH

Crude Watch

The intraday price on the CME/NYMEX market is $98.15, down $1.26 at 9:06 AM.

 OPEC Basket Data

Interesting Links and Resources

(Click on Links to View)

IHS Report Makes Strong Case for Shale Drilling
The energy industry report makes a strong case for the economic stimulus that will result from increased shale exploration and development. One of the predictions is that lower "shale gas prices will add an annual average of $926 per year in disposable household income between 2012 and 2015. In 2035, this would increase to just over $2,000 per household." IHS provides research and consulting services to companies in the energy industry.

Wyoming's Tainted Water Puts Pressure on EPA to Act on Gas Fracking
While the movie "Gasland" was critiqued for its sensationalism, one of its main assertions was that fracking can harm aquifers. They may be right. Recent EPA studies indicate that EnCana's natural gas fracking may have contaminated an aquifer in Pavilion, Wyoming.

NYSERDA's New Campaign Focuses on Measurable Results for Business and Schools
New York's esteemed agency gets energy efficiency right by placing the focus on results rather than rhetoric.

Propane and Fuel Oil Users Face Higher Costs
If your company still has facilities using heating oil or propane, expect high prices this winter.

PJM-States to Tap Into Kansas Wind Power
The theoretical possibility of eastern states tapping into proposed mid-west wind farms became slightly more real with the recent Kansas approval of a 700-mile, high-voltage transmission line that would be used for distributing Clean Line Energy's wind power to the PJM grid.

Buffet Bets on Solar Company
Warren Buffett makes a typical play to rescue a troubled corporate asset. This time, the company just happens to be a solar energy company. The famous number-cruncher may be signaling that solar energy companies can stand on their own.

Weather Trends- Warming Trend Predicted
The National Weather Service is predicting above average temperatures from the Rockies to the Atlantic Coast. If you want great skiing this winter, head for the Rockies. (Click links below.)