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November 28, 2011

Natural Gas Demand 14% Below Normal for Week

Furnaces and industrial boilers were given a break across the country due to the warm Thanksgiving weather. The holiday felt more like Labor Day in some parts of the country. The National Weather Service reported that the anticipated heat demand will be 14% below normal for the week.

You can bet on prices popping up on settlement day, which was Friday, and you would not have been out of the money last week. Prices rose from a low of $3.29 per MWH on Wednesday to $3.542 on settlement day. Prices have predictably pulled back over ten cents today to $3.448 per MWH at 9:23 AM.

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There was chatter about China's insatiable demand last week in the energy media as hedge fund traders worked hard to link domestic natural gas prices to the growing demand in China and Japan for LNG. The problem with the efforts of the hedge fund traders to manipulate the price to higher levels is that the US is not an LNG power, and probably will not be a significant force in the world market for LNG for ten years. Rest assured that you will see this red herring rise again.

Shale gas is simply so productive right now, it has set the natural gas suppliers back on their heels and continues to catch traders in classic bull traps. The traders who are long on gas will grasp at straws to pump up the price, so that they can abandon their positions and hopefully (sarcasm intended) move on to some other commodity that is easier to manipulate.

There are market fundamentals that do matter, and one is demand. Most of the US, with the exception of the Northeast, is predicted to experience colder than average temperatures over the next three weeks. There is the potential for a sustained move up for the price of natural gas. The current prices appear to be a bottom as the sun slips further south of the equator. Winter will come and that is the safest wager of all.

Natural Gas Drilling Exploration Drops by 8 Rigs

As of November 18, there were 6 fewer exploration rigs at work in the US compared to the previous week. In total, there are 865 natural gas drilling rigs in action, which is 88 less than last year at this time. (Baker Hughes)

Natural Gas Storage Rate Well Above Average With Injection of 9 Bcf

When will the heating season begin? Once again, we had positive injections into storage well into November. Working gas in storage was 3,852 Bcf as of Friday, November 18, 2011, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 9 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 23 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 233 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,619 Bcf.  We have almost 20% of total natural gas consumption for the year ready for use and safely in storage. This is excellent news for consumers.

Natural Gas Futures Break Downtrend

CME-NYMEX natural gas futures market intraday prices for November 28, 2011 at 10:23 AM.
(Prices are USD per mmbtu)


Dec. 2011- $3.448 -$0.094
Jan.  2012 - $3.577 -$0.088
Feb. 2012- $3.606 -$0.087
Mar. 2012 - $3.614 -$0.079
Apr. 2012- $3.646 -$0.075
May. 2012- $3.691 -$0.073

PMC 30-Day Natural Gas Futures Chart

Electricity Prices Remain Below $40-per-MWH Due To Above Average Temperatures

The warm November weather is dissipating in most of the country, but will linger in the Northeast, which may help keep electricity prices below the $40.00 per MWH mark for another week or two.

Natgas

Crude Watch

Light Sweet Crude (WTI) is trading up nearly 3% on news of excellent Black Friday Sales and new Arab League sanctions against Syria due to its brutal crackdown against protesters. The intraday price on the CME/NYMEX market at $99.77, up $3.00 at 8:32 AM.

 OPEC Basket Data

Interesting Links and Resources

(Click on Links to View)

Pennsylvania Utilities Seek Faster Process for Raising Rates
Allentown gasline explosion places spotlight on the immediate need for funding utility infrastructure plans.

Consultant Builds Case for More Wind Power in New England
New England energy planners are looking to wind power for relief of their dearth of energy resources.

Last Active Power Plant in Southern Tier of NY Shuts Down
In a slow economy, it was difficult for energy provider to maintian profitability.

Exelon and Constellation Shareholders Approve Merger
Another step is completed in approving the mega-merger in PJM's territory.

How to Assess Energy Reservoirs Using a Modified Monte Carlo System
Fans of John Nash and true math geeks will appreciate this clever use of the Monte Carlo function to assess hydrocarbon reservoirs courtesy of Baker Hughes. This formula is especially useful in massive structures like the Marcellus Shale and the Utica Shale since more data points generate more precise results.

Weather Trends- Indian Summer To Fade Slowly in Northeast
While the rest of the country will experience colder than averag temperatures, the National Weather Service is predicting that the Northeast will experience above average temperatures over the next three weeks.
(Click links below.)

6-10 Day forecast
8-14 Day forecast
NOAA Forecast- 30-Days
El Nino-La Nina (Pacific Ocean Temperature Levels)
Arctic Oscillation (Arctic Pressure Patterns)

Jet Stream Forecast (SFSU)

Written by Martin Linskey; Energy Charts developed by Charles Myers.

Disclaimer: This information is provided for the use of our customers and potential customers. Power Management Company assumes no responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of pricing or information in this document. Historical data was obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended to provide advice or recommendation. Views are subject to change without notice.

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